Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
